Ipswich Town vs Fulham prediction
Premier LeagueKickoff Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 UK
The AI tip
- Estimated probability
- 27.0 %
- Expected value
- -1.5 %
- Suggested stake
- 0% of bankroll
Expected value is below the value-bet threshold of +5.0 %. The pick is shown for reference: no stake is suggested and it does not count in the track record.
Computed 2 Oct 2026, 19:06 UK. The tip is recalculated as the odds move, up to kickoff.
Model against the market
Market is the bookmaker consensus with the margin removed. Model is that consensus adjusted by the AI's estimated mispricing. Fair odds are the model probability as a price: a best price above it is where the value is.
| Outcome | Market | Model | Fair odds | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home win (1) | 35.4 % | 35.4 % | 2.82 | 2.791xBet |
| Draw (X) | 27.0 % | 27.0 % | 3.71 | 3.65Pinnacle |
| Away win (2) | 37.6 % | 37.6 % | 2.66 | 2.631xBet |
AI analysis
Opening
This is a closely balanced contest, with Fulham only marginally favoured by the market. Ipswich’s higher league position is a positive, but it does not establish a clear underlying advantage.
Form & momentum
Ipswich have six points to Fulham’s two, yet their latest listed results include consecutive defeats against Arsenal and Everton. Wins over Crystal Palace and Leicester demonstrate attacking potential, while several heavy concessions underline defensive vulnerability. Fulham’s recent draws against Manchester United and Liverpool, alongside victory over West Ham, offer a more competitive picture than their league position suggests.
Matchup
Ipswich’s route to success depends on converting attacking opportunities without allowing the game to become stretched. Fulham have recently contained strong opposition, but defeats against Palace and Sunderland show they remain beatable. Neither side has established consistent control of matches.
Home advantage
Playing at home supports Ipswich’s prospects and helps explain the narrow gap between the teams. It is a meaningful factor already reflected in the market assessment.
Risks & scenarios
An early goal could expose either team’s defensive weaknesses. A more cautious opening would keep the contest tight and the draw relevant, making the first goal particularly influential.
Value
The table-based case for Ipswich is balanced by Fulham’s stronger recent individual results. There is no compelling home or away value advantage, so the market’s assessment warrants no adjustment.
Match predictability: Elevated
Odds from every bookmaker
The best price for each outcome is in bold. Exchange prices (Betfair, Matchbook) are shown after commission.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.79 | 3.62 | 2.63 |
| 888sport | 2.62 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.67 | 3.43 | 2.37 |
| Betfairnet | 2.69 | 3.52 | 2.60 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.72 | 3.60 | 2.57 |
| Betsson | 2.70 | 3.52 | 2.52 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| Coolbet | 2.71 | 3.64 | 2.53 |
| Everygame | 2.55 | 3.45 | 2.45 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.63 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.71 | 3.52 | 2.56 |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.65 | 3.42 | 2.44 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.52 |
| Pinnacle | 2.69 | 3.65 | 2.55 |
| Tipico | 2.65 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.35 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.70 | 3.55 | 2.60 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.70 | 3.55 | 2.60 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.55 | 3.50 | 2.40 |